NEWS
Sep 16, 2025
Is the party over for seaborne coal? Bulker companies’ opinions are divided
Brokers, operators and shipowners have differing views on if or when a coal revival will kick in
TradeWinds correspondent London / Published 16 September 2025, 20:08
Seaborne coal volumes have declined this year, but will there be a comeback — and when?
Opinions were split at a Capital Link conference held on Tuesday as part of London International Shipping Week.
Annual coal export volumes are set to fall by around 6% this year, but are forecast to recover by 1% next year, according to Ifchor Galbraiths.
“Coal has been dying and resurrecting and dying and resurrecting,” observed the shipbroking group’s partner Emanuele Ravano, who moderated the panel discussion.
But Peter Weernink, founder and chief executive of bulker operator SwissMarine, thinks coal is definitely dying — on water, that is.
“We’ve seen the high on seaborne coal,” he said.
“About 49% of seaborne coal is China and India. It’s a small part of those markets. There’s a lot of coal in China and India, and there’s a lot of growth in renewables, particularly in China.”
SwissMarine’s coal customers are expecting a fall in volumes next year, which could benefit demand for smaller bulk carriers, he added.
Coal is perhaps the one commodity in which vessel demand adjusts in size depending on market prices, according to Weernink.
“Coal on panamaxes is actually up this year, whereas coal on [capesizes] is down a fair bit,” he said,
“Especially if you look at the outlook for capes, yes, indeed for capes the next few years versus the smaller sizes will be quite different.
“The odds are that more coal will continue to move on the smaller sizes.”
Costas Delaportas, chief executive of Greek owner-operator DryDel, thinks seaborne coal volumes will be there in the medium term, driven by high demand for electricity generation.
He believes the dip this year has been mostly seasonal and a correction will come during the second half.
Weernink disagreed, describing the mid-year uptick as a “temporary blip”.
“Yes, in July and August, we had a substantial uptake in coal, but it had more to do with rain in northern China and heatwaves in south China, and therefore additional air [conditioning] demand,” he said.
“It doesn’t mean that over the next few years, you can’t have another ‘up’ year again.”
The key is to see seaborne coal for what it is — a small component of the overall energy mix for a wide variety of importers beyond just India and China.
“You have to realise the seaborne coal is a small balancing number in the Indian and Chinese market,” Weernink said.
“We see growth in south Asia, I agree, but it’s relatively small. So the odds are still that coal volumes have seen the high.”
Dry freight owner-operator Pangaea Logistics Solutions deals mainly in iron ore and bauxite, focused primarily on the Atlantic market, dipping into carrying coal from time to time.
Chief executive Mark Filanowski said: “It’s pretty much spot and opportunistic.”
He agreed with Delaportas, but is still not exactly a bull on coal.
“Costa said that there’s a huge demand for energy, and energy derived from coal, because there’s going to be a lot of coal there for a long time to burn,” he told the conference.
“But I’m not sure I would invest in coal-carrying ships.”